- GBP remains uncertain after daily data – Arguments continue over consequences of ‘Brexit’
- Turkish integration into EU claimed by ‘Leave’ campaigners – Questions emerge over validity of argument
- Euro somewhat positive after earlier PMI results – Mixed results for Germany and Eurozone
- Finnish unemployment to open tomorrow – Current forecasts pessimistic for outcome
The Pound has continued to fluctuate against its rivals today, with the latest EU Referendum developments being the investigation of ‘Leave’ campaign claims that Turkey will be joining the EU at any point in the near-future. This argument has been countered by the fact that Turkey has been trying unsuccessfully to enter the EU since the late ’80s.
The Euro has made a few marginal gains, although the face that Eurozone PMIs fell earlier on remains a limiting factor for the common currency.
(Last Updated 10:15 May 23rd)
Earlier…
The Pound has been a fairly unstable option for investors since the start of trade, having either trended in a tight range or falling against most of its peers.
The Euro, meanwhile, has been giving a marginally more positive performance, although investors appear to be maintaining caution over the continuing efforts of the Greek government to relieve its crippling levels of debt.
UK Economic News: Worrying Treasury Forecasts Limit Sterling Movement
The Pound has made little in the way of positive movement against its rivals recently, with its greatest advance being 0.5% against the Russian Ruble. More prevalent losses have included -0.3% against the New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD), -0.4% against the Mexican Peso (GBP/MXN) and -0.5% against the Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY). Sterling has trended in a tight range against the Euro (GBP/EUR) and the US Dollar (GBP/USD).
The most notable UK news of late has concerned the potential outcomes of the June 23rd Referendum vote; on the ‘Remain’ side, the Treasury has issued a gloomy report that the UK may enter a year-long recession if it exits from the European Union (EU).
Adding to the uncertainty caused by this forecast, NHS Chief Executive Simon Stevens has warned that a ‘Brexit’ could result in a catastrophic reduction in the service’s scope, stating:
‘I think any nurse, any doctor, any patient will tell you that over time the NHS is going to need more investment, so the reality is anything that puts that at risk is of deep concern’.
Euro Slides after Poor PMI Results Arrive; Greek Drama Continues
The single currency has been scarcely better than the Pound in its overall exchange rate movements today, with losses coming against a sizable number of peers in the wake of the most recent domestic data announcements.
Gains for the Euro have included 0.2% against the Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) and marginal increases against the Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) and the Swiss Franc (EUR/CHF), while losses have been made up of more than -0.5% against the New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) and the Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY), as well as -0.9% against the South African Rand (EUR/ZAR).
The latest Eurozone data, concerning manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for May, has been poor in all three cases.
Meanwhile, although the Greek parliament has recently approved harsh austerity measures, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to satisfy the nation’s international creditors.
Future GBP, EUR Forecast: Eurozone Confidence Stats Out This Afternoon
The near-future will bring the announcement of the Eurozone consumer confidence result for May, which at the time of writing was expected to ‘improve’ from -9.3 points to -9.
Current GBP, EUR Exchange Rates
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.2973 and the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.7709 today.