- EU Referendum voting concludes – UK votes for Brexit
- Pound (GBP) Rate Slumps – GBP USD exchange rate touched 31-year low
- Risk-Off Trade Bolsters USD – Risk-correlated assets struggle
- Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rates Forecast to Edge Higher – Consolidative trade to push Sterling higher
EU Referendum Results Coverage – Pound (GBP) Plummets as UK Votes to Brexit
After Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rates dropped to multi-year lows, speculation of trader overreaction caused Sterling to climb versus its peers.
The British Pound continues to hold a weakened position versus all of its 16 most actively traded peers. However, there is some potential for a modest recovery if traders opt to take advantage of the Pound’s comparatively low trade weighting.
(16:36)
The UK has voted to leave the EU, and the reaction in financial markets has been instantaneous with Pound exchange rates dropping dramatically across the board.
While the Pound Euro exchange rate fell to 1.22 the Pound US Dollar exchange rate hit 1.34, it’s lowest level since 1985.
The Pound was also tumbling against peers like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars.
Further dramatic movement is likely to occur over the course of the day as European markets open.
(06:40)
EU Referendum Polling Day News
Polling stations are open between 07:00 and 22:00 BST.
EU Referendum polling day has finally arrived, with citizens of the UK voting on whether Britain should remain part of the European Union or vote to Brexit.
With a record-high number of registered voters, and with referendum opinion polls indicating the outcome will be close, the Pound exchange rate has edged lower from weekly highs.
It is worth acknowledging that risk appetite in the currency market remains, with traders buying into high-yielding assets such as the Australian Dollar, indicating that most investors are confident the UK will vote ‘Remain’.
What do the Opinion Polls Say about a Possible Brexit from the EU?
ComRes: Remain 48%, Leave 42%, Undecided 11% (101% due to rounding up)
YouGov: Remain 51%, Leave 49%
Opinium: Remain 44%, Leave 45%, Undecided 9%
TNS: Remain 41%, Leave 43%, Undecided 16%
FT Poll of Polls: Remain 47%, Leave 45%
EU Referendum Rolling Coverage – Will the UK Brexit?
Follow our rolling coverage of the EU Referendum as the votes are cast, counted and verified.
Pound Euro Exchange Rate Dives As Votes Indicate Marginal Brexit Victory
Whilst it is still very early in the count, traders and bookies are clearly losing confidence of a ‘Remain’ victory. ‘Leave’ has taken a surprising lead in these early stages, but the vote remains very close.
Many analysts now feel that the vote will be decided in London and Birmingham.
Sterling continues to fall, with FTSE futures down 5%.
(02:20)
Following the Sunderland vote, Sterling exchange rates dived across the board. Traders are fleeing from the Pound as confidence recedes and fears mount regarding overwhelming overvaluation.
Traders are likely to be highly reactionary, however, and this is not necessarily an indication that the UK will Brexit, especially at this very early stage.
(00:31)
Sunderland vote sees a huge 61% majority for ‘Leave’. This has seen the ‘Leave’ campaign take a fractional lead in these very early stages. Pound Sterling exchange rates have cooled from the 20016 highs reached at the close of the vote.
(00:19)
Newcastle votes extremely close, with a 50.7% majority for ‘Remain’. This was somewhat surprising as analysts predicted that the ‘Remain’ vote would win by a much larger majority.
(00:01)
Gibraltar votes counted and verified, overwhelmingly in favour of remain. This is a very small portion of the votes, however.
(23:39)
Markets are showing surprising confidence that the referendum will result in a ‘Remain’ victory. The GBP USD exchange rate has reached a 2016 high and is likely to breach the 1.50 level.
(22:25)
The polling stations have closed. Votes will now be counted and verified, and we will have a final result at approximately 07:00 BST.
(22:00)
Bad news for those of you stuck in traffic, if you do not get to your polling station before 22:00 it is now too late to apply for an emergency proxy.
EU Referendum Vote Triggers Pencil-Gate Controversy
(20:13)
A major story to emerge from polling day is the insistence of using a pencil to vote. There have been reports that police were called to a polling station in Chichester because a woman was handing out pens.
Whilst this is likely to be a non-issue, it could give rise to skepticism regrading the validity of the vote. As a result, those who do not get the outcome they desire will look for any reason to have a do-over.
Pound Exchange Rates Firm With GBP Climbing on EUR, USD
(18:47)
Trader confidence appears to be receding as the Pound cools from intraday highs. In early trade the GBP USD exchange rate reached a fresh 2016 high, but Sterling has steadily cooled versus its major peers towards the close of the European session.
Another potential reason for Sterling depreciation is reports that there has been huge demand for travel money today, with the Post Office and Bureau de Change reporting lengthy queues. This suggests that Brits are far less confident of a ‘Remain’ vote than traders and bookmakers.
(16:36)
It transpires that strikes in France are preventing many expats from returning to vote. In somewhat controversial news, this is not considered reason enough to allow for an emergency proxy.
GBP Dips from Days Highs as Brexit Nerves Take Hold
(16:05)
Pound Sterling exchange rates have cooled from intraday highs this afternoon, with the GBP/USD exchange rate trading in the region of 1.4809. This may reflect reduced trader confidence, although high-yielding assets continue to gain.
(15: 20)
A poll of polls by Britain Elects revealed the averages from polls conducted by Populus, Mori, ComRes, YouGov, Opinium, TNS and Survation. The poll indicates averages of Remain: 51.0%, and
Leave: 49.0%.
(14:10)
Looking in closer detail at the Ispos Mori poll, it reveals interesting points that may confirm why ‘Remain’ has recovered the lead.
In the previous poll that gave ‘Leave’ the lead, immigration was highlighted as the most significant issue for voters. Whilst the fresh poll still puts immigration at the highest percentage of significance, concerns regarding the impact of Brexit on the economy have risen, closing the gap against immigration as the most important issue.
(13:07)
Last EU referendum opinion poll from Ipsos Mori indicates that ‘Remain’ will be victorious with 52% of the vote. The GBP USD exchange rate has reached an intraday high of 1.4947 as safe-haven demand recedes.
Pound Euro, Pound US Dollar Exchange Rates Fluctuate as EU Referendum Votes Flood In
(11:58)
Sterling (GBP) continues to trend within a narrow range against the Euro, and has extended gains against the US Dollar.
This is the best indication that traders are confident the UK will vote to remain in the EU, especially with risk-on trade pushing high-yielding assets higher,
Pictures from polling stations across the country have shown a healthy turn out thus far.
(11:05)
Political figures begin to cast their votes, with Prime Minister David Cameron and Leader of the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn leading the way.
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has also already cast her vote.
Given the intense campaigning from all three aforementioned politicians, it is safe to assume that the ‘Remain’ camp has secured at least 3 votes so far.
(09:50)
Heavy downpour in many parts of the country have been somewhat of a disruption with a number of polling stations flooded. There has been reports of voters having to be carried into flooded stations, but in general voting has commenced without any major hitch thus far.
Polling stations have reported a steady flow of voters, no pun intended.