Although speculation surrounding the upcoming Indian election has boosted the Rupee in recent weeks, the emerging market asset fell against the US Dollar during local trading and fluctuated against the Euro.
The prospect of the opposition party coming to power and working towards a more economically sustainable future is lending the currency support and the Rupee has been further boosted this week by the Federal Open Market Committee’s dovish meeting minutes.
Last week the Rupee to US Dollar (INR/USD) hit an eight-month high with the Rupee enjoying a bullish relationship with several of its major currency counterparts.
However, the currency has gradually pared these gains and as Asian stocks declined overnight the Rupee shed 0.3 per cent against the US Dollar and edged lower against the Euro and Pound.
In the view of one Mumbai-based industry expert; ‘Weak stocks in Asian markets are weighing on the Rupee’.
The Rupee was also adversely affected by the news that India’s trade deficit widened in March, with declining exports driving the deficit up from 8.13 billion Dollars in February to 10.51 billion Dollars.
Other pressure came in the form of disappointing domestic industrial and manufacturing reports.
Industrial production dropped by 1.9 per cent in February, year-on-year, rather than advancing the 1.2 per cent expected.
Manufacturing production dropped by 3.7 per cent on the year – a far steeper annual decline than the 0.6 per cent loss anticipated.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was boosted by the news that the University of Michigan Confidence Index jumped from 80.0 to 82.6 in April.
Economists had expected a reading of 81.0.
Next week India’s inflation figures (due out on Tuesday) will be the main cause of domestic Rupee movement.
The emerging market asset is also likely to be affected by US developments.
Investors interested in the Euro to INR pairing should also pay attention to next week’s German ZEW economic sentiment survey and Eurozone inflation figures.
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates
[table width=”100%” colwidth=”50|50|50|50|50″ colalign=”left|left|left|left|left”]
Currency, ,Currency,Rate ,
Euro,
,US Dollar,1.3878 ,
Euro,,British Pound,0.8297 ,
Euro,,Australian Dollar,1.4765,
Euro,,New Zealand Dollar,1.5991,
Euro,,Canadian Dollar,1.5213,
[/table]
