- Euro exchange rates move closer to overall positive – Minor negative persist for single currency
- Unemployment rate remains flat for Netherlands – Euro appreciates regardless
- Pound Sterling unsettled after CBI results fall below forecasts – -47% drop seen in UK business confidence
- Major German confidence score due on Wednesday – UK mortgage approvals stats due tomorrow
Euro Pound Exchange Rate Edges Higher, German Confidence Survey Impresses
Although the Pound showed resilience in the face of less-than-impressive domestic data on Tuesday, the Euro Pound exchange rate firmed as the week continued and Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence index surprised forecasts.
While the measure did dip from 10.1 to 10.0 in August, the result was better than the 9.9 reading forecast.
However, according to industry expert Tim Clayton: ‘There was a significant retreat in the economic expectations component with a decline of 8.6 points to 9.4 and a noticeable weakening of the recent positive trend. There was evidence that the UK Brexit vote had an important negative impact on sentiment according to the special question on the UK referendum with over 50% expecting the vote to have negative effects.’
With UK growth data ahead further EUR/GBP volatility can be expected.
The Euro is currently trending against the Pound in the region of 1.1939.
(Previously updated 26/06/2016)
EUR GBP Exchange Rate Climbs, No Eurozone Data Today
With Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Martin Weale suddenly coming out in favour of immediate policy action, the Pound posted broad-based declines, with the EUR GBP exchange rate climbing 0.25%.
With no Eurozone data scheduled for publication today, it will be down to UK news and commentary to inspire further Euro Pound exchange rate volatility.
Tomorrow Germany is due to release it’s GfK consumer confidence index. The measure is believed to have fallen from 10.1 to 9.9 in August – a result which may weigh on Euro demand.
As it stands, the pairing is trading in the region of 0.8409.
(Previously updated 17:00 25/07/2016)
The value of the Euro has increased on the whole over the course of the day, although some losses nonetheless remain for the single currency. In particular on the positive side, advances of over 0.8% have been seen against the South African Rand (EUR ZAR) and the Canadian Dollar (EUR CAD).
In an additional piece of Eurozone news, the Dutch unemployment rate for June has remained at 6.5%, causing no real direct shift in the Euro’s value.
The Pound has been through the mill on the first day of the week, having been sent tumbling across the board by the fact that the CBI business confidence result for July fell by -47%.
Looking ahead, the next notable pairing data to watch out for will come tomorrow, when the UK’s BBA mortgage approvals result for June is due to come, with a decline on the previous printing on the cards.
(Last updated 10:26, July 25th, 2016)
The Euro Pound (EUR GBP) exchange rate advanced on Monday, with the Euro putting on a mixed performance against the majority of its currency counterparts.
The Pound has been charting a more positive course on the whole, with gains stemming from the possibility of a major trade deal between the UK and China.
Eurozone Economic News: Euro Unsettled by Opening German Confidence Scores
The Euro has been an unstable option for investment so far this week, as while gains have been seen of 0.4% against the South African Rand (EUR ZAR) and 0.5% against the Canadian Dollar (EUR CAD), losses have also been recorded of -0.3% against the Pound (EUR GBP) and minor declines against the US Dollar (EUR USD) and Polish Zloty (EUR PLN).
The single currency’s appeal was harmed over the weekend, as the confidence of Germany was rocked by another terrorist incident, which makes the possibility of reprisals against asylum seekers more likely.
Domestic data for the Eurozone has also mainly focused on Germany so far; the IFO surveys of confidence and expectations for July have recently come in.
In summary, expectations on the business climate have fallen slightly, current conditions have crept up and expectations have fallen from 103.1 to 102.2.
Pound Advances as Mixed Opinions Emerge over Post-‘Brexit’ Situation
The Pound has managed to make a number of notable gains against its major peers lately, having recorded advances of 0.3% against the Euro (GBP EUR), 0.5% against the Swedish Krona (GBP SEK) and 0.7% against the Russian Ruble (GBP RUB). These gains come in contrast to Friday’s abysmal performance, which was brought about by UK PMI results.
In terms of domestic data, there has been nothing of yet at the beginning of the week, although prior predictions and developments have nonetheless influenced the UK currency already.
An alarming prediction for the UK’s future relationship with the EU and the world has come from global finance ministers at the G20 summit in China. There have been growing concerns that current relations with the UK and continental Europe could sour as ‘Brexit’ talks drag on; therefore finance ministers attending G20 have implored that the UK remains a ‘close partner of the EU’, with the implication being that this be both an economic and political closeness.
In a more positive tale after the EU Referendum, new Chancellor Phillip Hammond has been in discussions with Chinese officials about opening a new trade agreement. Speaking to the BBC, Hammond stated that;
‘The mood music that I have heard here is very much that this will mean more opportunity for countries like China that are outside the European Union to do business with Britain. And as Britain leaves the European Union and is not bound by the rules of the European Union, perhaps it will be easier to do deals with Britain in the future’.
Future EUR, GBP Forecast: German GfK Consumer Confidence Out on Wednesday, UK CBI Stats due Shortly
The near-future will bring the first and only UK economic announcements of the day, consisting of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) trends for total orders and selling prices in July, as well as the CBI’s business optimism result for the same month.
As of writing, the only forecasts have been for an ‘improvement’ in total orders and optimism, though negative figures are still forecast.
Looking further ahead, the coming Wednesday will bring further German ecostats, with the Gfk consumer confidence score for August being announced in the morning. Present predictions are for a dip from 10.1 to 9.8.
Current EUR, GBP Exchange Rates
The Euro Pound (EUR GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.8354 and the Pound Euro (GBP EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.1971 today.
