The Euro held onto its gains against the Pound on Friday’s afternoon session, having been bolstered by a Eurozone consumer confidence flash.
While the result wasn’t as good as forecast, the shift from -3.6 to -3.3 still put consumer confidence in May as the best since June 2007. The Euro rose to 0.8597 against the Pound on the news, given that as it was a flash result, the actual confidence score could be even higher.
Positive UK news was also seen on Friday, with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) industrial orders measure showing a rise from 4 to 9. This was not enough to inspire a GBP EUR rally, however.
(First published 09:56, May 19th, 2017)
The Euro to Pound exchange rate has risen marginally today following a long-awaited approval in the Greek parliament.
- EUR GBP rate rises to 0.8579 – GBP EUR trades down at 1.1655
- Euro supported by Greek parliament vote – Amid protests, government approves more austerity
- Pound slips after Conservative manifesto launch – Will new policies alienate older voters?
- Euro advance possible on incoming confidence stats – Pound could rise on industrial stats
The latest news out of debt-riddled Greece has been positive – the government has approved another round of austerity measures. While controversial to the point of triggering violent protests, these measures are necessary to unlock the next tier of bailout funding.
Although this just seems to be déjà vu to onlookers, it nonetheless means that Greece will remain financially afloat for the time being.
In UK news, analysts have been poring over Thursday’s Conservative manifesto. Notably larger than many expected, the document included plans to factor house values into social care cost thresholds and to remove the winter fuel allowance from wealthier pensioners.
The Pound been weak since the manifesto was launched, potentially showing trader concern that the Conservative’s polling lead could narrow over such critical policies for the elderly.
Today’s last high-impact Eurozone news will be a consumer confidence flash for May, which has been positively forecast. While minor, the predicted shift from -3.6 to -3 may be enough to raise Euro demand.
Looking ahead to next week, high-impact Eurozone news is due on Tuesday and Wednesday, with lesser announcements also expected on Thursday and Friday.
Tuesday will bring German GDP, manufacturing and survey stats for Q1 and May; final GDP growth is expected to rise on the quarter but dip annually.
Wednesday’s announcements will stay German, with the GFK consumer confidence score for June coming out.
Later in the week, the Euro could rise on growing Spanish Q1 GDP on Thursday and on positive Italian confidence figures on Friday.
The Pound may advance against the Euro today when the May’s Confederation of British Industry (CBI) industrial orders figure comes out, although current forecasts have been for no overall change.
Next week will bring UK government borrowing figures on Tuesday; if the deficit expands significantly, the GBP EUR exchange rate could slide.
Elsewhere, UK GDP growth stats for Q1 are out on Thursday along with business investment stats for the same quarter. Quarterly GDP growth is forecast to slow from 0.7% to 0.3%, but a yearly rise is predicted from 1.9% to 2.1%. Annual figures are generally more impactful, so the Pound could still rally if predictions are accurate.
Current Interbank EUR GBP Exchange Rates
At the time of writing, the Euro to Pound (EUR GBP) exchange rate was trading up at 0.8579 and the Pound to Euro (GBP EUR) exchange rate was trading down at 1.1654.
