The Euro to Polish Zloty (EUR/PLN) exchange rate firmed on Tuesday as speculation increased that Greece will attempt to renegotiate its bailout conditions without forcing an exit from the Eurozone; economists also shrugged off positive Polish data.
Euro Experiencing Relief Rally
The Euro rallied against all of its most traded peers after Eurozone finance minister announced that they were willing to do a deal with the new Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tspiras. The ministers have agreed to work to keep Greece in the Eurozone and as a result, the single currency made gains.
Despite the market’s belief that there will be no Eurozone exit for Greece there is sure to be volatile days ahead as Germany and other EU nations have ruled out offering any form of debt relief to Greece, something that Tsipras is likely to demand.
Market expectations for no volatility because of Syriza’s win are short sighted and could come back to haunt the markets later.
Polish Zloty Weaker Despite Data
The Euro held onto gains against the Polish Zloty despite data released by the Warsaw based Polish Statistics Office showing that Poland’s economy expanded by 3.3% from the previous year; it was the fastest rate of growth seen since 2011.
Poland’s economy is the only one in the European Union (EU) that saw growth every year throughout the global financial crisis and grew despite the political unrest in neighbouring Ukraine. The economy has also strengthened despite the imposition of sanctions by the EU on Russia.
‘Recent data surprised on the upside, showing decent production growth and a continuing labour market recovery. Consumer sentiment indicators remained on an upward trend in January, confronting that Polish households are still willing to spend money amid rising income,’ said Bank Zachodni WBK economist Maciej Reluga.
Retail sales data also came in better than forecast by rising to 1.8% on an annual basis from the fall of -0.2% from the previous year. Economists had been forecasting for a figure of 1.7%.
Despite the positive data, the Zloty remains under pressure from the Swiss National Banks surprise decision to ditch its exchange rate cap with the Euro. Poland was badly hit by the announcement as many Poles have mortgages Swiss Francs.
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