Over the course of the coming week there will be several data publications of significance pertaining to both Europe and the UK. The pairing is likely to see heightened volatility, especially with ongoing developments in Greece and uncertainties regarding the UK’s in/out European Union referendum.
Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast to Fluctuate ahead of BoE Inflation Reoprt
There will be a number of influential British data publications over the coming week, but principle among them is Friday’s Bank of England (BoE) 12-month Inflation Projection. The previous projection came before the conclusion of the general election, when political uncertainty clouded economic forecasting. Expectation is mounting that the BoE will positively revise the inflation figures, and give more hawkish statements with regard to the timing of a benchmark rate increase.
The BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be making their interest rate decision on Thursday. The data is unlikely to be hugely impactful, however, given most analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged at this juncture.
In addition to the data mentioned above; the Manufacturing PMI, Net Consumer Credit, Net Lending Securities on Dwellings, Mortgage Approvals, the Construction PMI, Nationwide House Prices, the Services PMI and the Composite PMI will all be of interest to those invested in the British asset.
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast Volatility ahead of Eurozone Labour Market Data and German Inflation Reports
Similarly to its British neighbour, the European economic docket is packed full of influential publications over the coming week. The European Central Bank (ECB) will be making the benchmark interest rate decision, although most analysts don’t see policymakers ready to advance rates with quantitative easing still in relative infancy.
Perhaps the most important European publication will be Friday’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product data. It will be interesting to see whether the geopolitical tensions in Greece have had an impact on growth in the currency-bloc.
Of all the European data publications due over the coming week; the German Consumer Price Index, EU-Harmonised German CPI, German Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, Eurozone Consumer Price Index and Eurozone Core CPI will have a strong influence over common currency movement.
The Italian Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Retail Sales, OECD Economic Outlook, ECB Deposit Facility Rate, ECB Marginal Lending Facility, German Construction PMI, German Retail PMI and German Factory Orders will also be of interest to those invested in the single currency.