The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates were all trading higher as investors awaited Bank of Canada (BOC) statements, US Durable Goods Orders and forecast the very real possibility of a Grexit.
Friday’s Eurozone finance minister heads attempted to spur on a deal with Greece by pushing the nation to make swift progress; however, as negotiatons have dragged on for months it’s unlikely Greece will hasten its pace now.
Either way, if Greece fails to make its next International Monetary Fund (IMF) repayment, the nation could be pushed out of the Eurozone.
#Greece's default probability jumps as Greek FinMin Varoufakis said to take hammering from frustrated EU ministers. pic.twitter.com/lr6D4UalOk
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 24, 2015
Concerns in #eurogroup #Riga about limited progress in talks with #Greece. Urgent need to speed up negotiations.
— Valdis Dombrovskis (@VDombrovskis) April 24, 2015
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trending lower in Friday’s European trading while the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar and the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates recorded gains ahead of the US Durable Goods Orders stat.
Meanwhile, it appears as if talks between Greece and its creditors have been rather heated on Friday as Eurogroup finance ministers tell Greece to get its act together.
Source says #Greece debate in #eurogroup room was pretty heated. Talks continuing outside, too. Presser may be delayed a bit
— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) April 24, 2015
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates were trading lower toward the close of Thursday’s European session after UK Retail Sales fell, while the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate remained in a narrow range after US New Home Sales and the Markit US Manufacturing Index both took a surprising dive. US New Home Sales slipped by -11.4% in March while Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI fell from 55.7 to 54.2 in April.
Monthly UK Retail Sales disappoint UK ONS: On the month, the quantity bought decreased by 0.5% compared with February 2015. #GBP — Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) April 23, 2015
Earlier… The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates were all trending lower in Thursday’s European session after UK Retail Sales slipped by -0.5% in the month of March rather than rising the +0.5% forecast.
Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD), US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast
Meanwhile, the Euro had a mixed bag of results on Thursday, beginning with the German Consumer Confidence figure rising from 10.0 to 10.1 in May. Economists had forecast a larger rise to 10.4, but still the improvement offered the Euro exchange rate some support.
However, both Markit’s German and Eurozone Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) fell in April. The German manufacturing sector slipped from 52.8 to 51.9, while the Eurozone’s manufacturing report also noted a tumble from 52.2 to 51.9.
Meanwhile, German Services fell from 55.4 to 54.4 in April, pulling the overall Eurozone PMI down from 54.2 to 53.7. Economists had forecast a rise in both measures and therefore the surprise figure didn’t bode well for Eurozone growth.
#Eurozone growth edges lower at start of 2nd quarter, Comp #PMI Output at 53.5 (54.0 in Mar) http://t.co/T3Z3i8VaIS http://t.co/qUzDuu5efL
— Markit Economics (@MarkitEconomics) April 23, 2015
As a result, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate dropped by 50 cents.
Some industry experts suggest that the ongoing Greece crisis is causing mixed sentiment in the Eurozone and prompting some companies to hold off on making developments.
Markit chief economist Chris Williamson stated: ‘There are signs of increased risk aversion creeping in among businesses and their customers, linked in some cases to worries about Greece, which is likely to have dampened demand.’
Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP), Euro (CAD/EUR), US Dollar (CAD/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar exchange rate declined in the early part of Thursday’s European session as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East influenced the price of oil. Crude prices have been playing havoc with the Canadian Dollar exchange rate as oil is Canada’s largest commodity, but is black gold about to rebound?
Wednesday’s US Crude Oil Inventories showed another gain in stockpiles and pressured the price of black gold lower, temporarily outweighing the Yemen conflict concerns.
Industry expert Elaine Levin commented: ‘Everyone knows there’s a lot of crude around. We’re building inventories everywhere.’
However, there seems to be a mixed debate on whether the price of oil will actually recover. The battle between US shale oil and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) seems to be far from over and some experts, such as Exxon’s CEO Rex Tillerson, believe lower oil prices are here for the foreseeable future.
But even if oil prices do recover, some expect the price of crude to remain far below the highs we saw last year.
Industry expert Tony Hayward commented: ‘The supply chain in the US is being decimated. Even if prices recover, the ability of the supply chain to respond will be severely impaired. It will take several years to get back to where we were.’
US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Euro (USD/EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast
Meanwhile, the US Dollar could be in for some interesting movement later in the session with the release of US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims stats. The US New Home Sales stat and Markit US Manufacturing PMI will also be published on Thursday’s session.
The US Dollar may also feel some influence from the Kansas City’s Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index.
However, Friday’s set to be a big day for the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR), US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) and US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rates with the release of the US Durable Goods Orders figure.
The ecostat is forecast to record 0.6% growth in March after February’s unfavourable -1.4% contraction. However, any figure that falls out of line with predictions could place some serious pressure on the US Dollar exchange rate and the USD/GBP, USD/EUR and USD/CAD currency pairs.
Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast
Friday will be devoid of any UK data, lending a lot of the Pound’s movements to any global developments or general election speculation. Furthermore, if economists hypothesise about the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate hike timeframe, the Pound Sterling exchange rate could experience some major swings.
Wednesday saw the BoE meeting minutes published and for two of the nine policymakers on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) the decision over whether to advocate an interest rate hike was ‘finely balanced.’ As a result the GBP/USD, GBP/EUR and GBP/CAD currency pairs all recorded gains.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate is reaching 1.8358. The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is trading at 1.4990; the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.3980.