The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates were climbing higher on Wednesday ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) meeting minutes, while the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate fell despite a drop in crude oil prices as middle-east tensions eased.
The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rates were both trading higher in Monday’s European session after UK Rightmove House Prices climbed by 1.6% in April, while the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate was trending lower as oil prices rose (WTI reaching over$56 per barrel) after Friday’s reduced oil rig count.
The Pound Sterling exchange rate is likely to soften in coming weeks as the UK general election draws closer. The fallout of political debate, uncertainty, ever-changing polls and heated speculation as to who will govern the country in coming weeks has all mounted on the Pound Sterling exchange rate and caused extreme sensitivity in recent months.
Foreign exchange expert Valentin Marinov commented: ‘The Pound could be in for a bounce after the election. The whole uncertainty will likely abate. The economy is continuing to do rather nicely.’
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast: EUR/GBP. EUR/CAD, EUR/USD
Meanwhile, the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) and Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rates are likely to continue trading tentatively as investors speculate on the likelihood of Greece making a deal with creditors this week.
The nation has been attempting to renegotiate its austerity deal, but little progress appears to have actually been made. However, many experts are now suggesting that the economy could be on the verge of financial collapse and could default on its next debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Barclays: Repayment timeline and other key events for Greece pic.twitter.com/EV6VmQPKrU
— Fabrizio Goria (@FGoria) April 16, 2015
If Greece were to fail in repaying the IMF, it’s highly possible a Greek exit from the Eurozone could occur.
Bank UBS economist Reinhard Cluse stated: ‘Although time is running short, there are clear indications that the Eurogroup meeting in Riga on 25th April might not bring a breakthrough. In the absence of a deal in the next few weeks, the government might not be able to avoid default, which – we fear – would likely raise the risk of Grexit.’
By way of data, Monday saw German Producer Prices climb from -2.1% to -1.7% in March on the year, after the month recorded 0.1% growth.
Legislative decree forcing general gov't bodies to deposit cash reserves with Bank of Greece published in Government Gazette #Greece
— MacroPolis (@MacroPolis_gr) April 20, 2015
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce the details of its recent quantitative easing (QE) purchases later in the session which is forecast to potentially impact the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) and Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rates quite dramatically.
US Dollar (USD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exchange Rate Forecasts
Meanwhile, the US Dollar could be in for an interesting day with Federal Reserve board member William Dudley speaking on the economy in New York during Monday’s Wall Street trading.
The Chicago Federal Reserve will release its latest National Activity Index which is expected to print favourably at 0.10 in March after February’s -0.11.
The Canadian Dollar exchange rate could also be impacted by central bank action in Monday’s North American session with Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz expected to speak in New York.
The Canadian Dollar was offered a little support from rising oil prices after Friday’s Baker Hughes US Rig Count declined from 988 to 954 in the week through April 17th.
Morgan Stanley expressed concerns over the situation, saying: ‘We worry about the market’s fixation on the US… OPEC [Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries} production may be more important as production increased 1 million barrels per day month-on-month in March. Saudi Arabia alone added the equivalent of half of Bakken (the largest US shale oil field) production in a matter of months – far beyond any US slowdown.’
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz dampened any speculation for another interest rate cut in the near future when he made statements in Monday’s North American session.
The central banker inferred that the recent rate cut had been accommodating and had helped the economy enough to warrant some stability.
Poloz stated: ‘That amount seems to be about right to restore our track for the Canadian economy for the next year or so and get the output gap to close late 2016.’
Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD), Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) and Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast
The Pound Sterling exchange rate is likely to experience fluctuations on Wednesday with the release of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes. Any hawkish central bank statements or divergence in policymakers could cause extreme swings in the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD), Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates.
Tuesday will see the release of US MBA Mortgage Applications, US Existing Home Sales and Eurozone Consumer Confidence figures which are all forecast to moderately influence the GBP/USD, GBP/CAD and GBP/EUR currency pairs.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate is currently reaching 1.8341. The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is trading at 1.4943; the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.3890.